By DemocracyRules
This is important. Dr. John Theon is a kind of climate ‘grandpa’. He says global warming is bunk.
I agree with him. As a scientist, I have watched grand theories collapse before, and they tend to collapse in a certain way. New theories usually arise from a small and determined group of younger researchers who spend years or decades trying to prove something to the established experts. As the new theory explains more data and observations, a following of believers starts to gather.
Eventually many of the established experts pick up the theory and use it to grab as much credit and funding as possible. They may say, “Well, that amazing new theorist started in my lab ... I trained him.” This may sound selfish, but it’s just human nature, and scientists are just humans.
Einstein was once a young maverick, and as he managed to gather scientific attention, senior scientists popped out of nowhere, claiming credit for having “mentored” him.
When Banting and Best discovered Insulin, the Dean of their institute claimed credit. I guess he walked by their labs occasionally, so he thought the whole thing was his own idea. He pushed Dr. Best out of the picture, and grabbed half the Nobel Prize for himself. That guy overdid it big-time, and no one remembers him now.
When a theory starts to fail, the trend reverses. Younger researchers start finding holes in the theory, because it doesn’t fit with new observations. They just about live in their labs, and they see the problems close up. These young scientists are the first to bail out. They’re looking for new ideas to hitch their careers onto, so they try to invent a new theory. The senior scientists ignore all these rumblings, and stick with the same old theory, trying to squeeze as much credit and funding as they can get out of it.
Finally word gets out that the old theory sucks, and the funding starts drying up. The senior scientists sense impending disaster, so they bail out and disavow all responsibility. “I saw the problems with the theory from the beginning,” they may say, or, “Yes the inventor of the theory started out in my lab, but I hardly knew him... etc., etc.” (Don’t blame them too much, they’re just people.)
In one famous case, a brilliant young physiologist produced amazing data showing he could train the internal organs to behave in certain ways. Heart rate, skin temperature, even urine output could be “taught”. Thousands of excited physiologists piled onto the bandwagon. But no one could replicate the findings in their own labs. Amidst the rising controversy, the senior scientist who supervised the young physiologist stood up in a scientific meeting. He said he couldn’t really vouch for the accuracy of the data, and he hadn’t really supervised the young man very closely. Clearly, the jig was up.
After that, everyone abandoned the idea you can teach tricks to internal organs. Sadly, the young physiologist committed suicide.
So in Global Warming research, when I see the senior scientists bailing out, I sense the jig is up.
NASA is the most influential organization that supports Global Warming. The key NASA scientist there is Dr. James Hansen, a long- time collaborator with Al Gore. Hansen has been beating this drum since 1988, and he’s extremely committed to “the cause”. Dr. Hansen recently proclaimed that “climate change deniers” should be criminally prosecuted.
Dr. Hansen’s ex-boss, Dr. John Theon, just joined the climate skeptics.
Here are two emails Dr. Theon recently sent to Marc Morano of the US Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (EPW):
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From: Jtheon [mailto:jtheon@XXXXXX]
Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2009 12:50 PM
To: Morano, Marc (EPW)
Subject: Re: Nice seeing you
Marc, Indeed, it was a pleasure to see you again. I appreciate the opportunity to add my name to those who disagree that Global Warming is man made. A brief bio follows. Use as much or as little of it as you wish.
John S. Theon Education: B.S. Aero. Engr. (1953-57); Aerodynamicist, Douglas Aircraft Co. (1957-58); As USAF Reserve Officer (1958-60),B.S. Meteorology (1959); Served as Weather Officer 1959-60; M.S, Meteorology (1960-62); NASA Research Scientist, Goddard Space Flight Ctr. (1962-74); Head Meteorology Branch, GSFC (1974-76); Asst. Chief, Lab. for Atmos. Sciences, GSFC (1977-78); Program Scientist, NASA Global Weather Research Program, NASA Hq. (1978-82); Chief, Atmospheric Dynamics & Radiation Branch NASA Hq., (1982-91); Ph.D., Engr. Science & Mech.: course of study and dissertation in atmos. science (1983-85); Chief, Atmospheric Dynamics, Radiation, & Hydrology Branch, NASA Hq. (1991-93); Chief, Climate Processes Research Program, NASA Hq. (1993-94); Senior Scientist, Mission to Planet Earth Office, NASA Hq. (1994-95); Science Consultant, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (1995-99); Science Consultant Orbital Sciences Corp. (1996-97) and NASA Jet Propulsion Lab., (1997-99).
As Chief of several NASA Hq. Programs (1982-94), an SES position, I was responsible for all weather and climate research in the entire agency, including the research work by James Hansen, Roy Spencer, Joanne Simpson, and several hundred other scientists at NASA field centers, in academia, and in the private sector who worked on climate research. This required a thorough understanding of the state of the science. I have kept up with climate science since retiring by reading books and journal articles. I hope that this is helpful.
Best wishes, John
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-----Original Message-----
From: Jtheon [mailto:jtheon@XXXXXXX]
Sent: Thursday, January 15, 2009 10:05 PM
To: Morano, Marc (EPW)
Subject: Climate models are useless
Marc, First, I sent several e-mails to you with an error in the address and they have been returned to me. So I'm resending them in one combined e-mail.
Yes, one could say that I was, in effect, Hansen's supervisor because I had to justify his funding, allocate his resources, and evaluate his results. I did not have the authority to give him his annual performance evaluation. He was never muzzled even though he violated NASA's official agency position on climate forecasting (i.e., we did not know enough to forecast climate change or mankind's effect on it). He thus embarrassed NASA by coming out with his claims of global warming in 1988 in his testimony before Congress.
My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit. Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists. This is clearly contrary to how science should be done. Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy.
With best wishes, John
# #
Pro Patria
This was released yesterday
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28893909
After 34 years another hoax goes down in the history books
Doc’s confession: We made up ‘cello scrotum’
What people fail to realize is this Repeat a lie with force and repetition and the lie becomes known as truth. They have been pounding away with doom and gloom for so long that naturally you believe.
If you were to take a child and tell (him or her) They're stupid everyday, that child will grow up thinking I'm stupid. It's as simple as that.
However the real problem becomes reversing it. I have debates daily on Global Warming and just like an Obot says factcheck.org has BO cert. The Global warming Idiots say read Inconvenient Truth.
Here are a few other myths or hoaxes:
“Piltdown Man”, greatest hoax ever – The fossils were a mish-mash of old bones
“The Gay Gene” - even though it was in 4 major magazines
“The Flat Earth” - people believed the earth was flat, even though Greeks in ancient Alexandria proved it was round and accurately calculated the circumference.
“Magellan Circumnavigated the world” – He died en route. Sir Francis Drake was the first to make it back alive.
“Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone” - Some claim he got the idea for the microphone from someone else.
“Edison invented the light bulb” - He didn’t. He invented one that was practical and could be mass produced.
“Columbus proved the earth was round” – He promoted that idea in Europe, but he badly miscalculated the circumference. He never made it to the orient.
“Cold Fusion” – The inventors claimed to have prove a nuclear reactor could be made that would run at room temperature. They were wrong.
"Peak Oil" - The world was supposed to run out of oil in 1992.
Posted by: Bdaman | January 29, 2009 at 11:18 AM