The Shift May Be Coming From Independents

By DemocracyRules

I would not call Gallup surveys science-grade data.  The main problem is the survey sample may or may not accurately represent the whole American electorate, or their voting intentions.  However, in the sample taken, there is clearly a shift among Independents and Democrats towards McCain-Palin:

(Click on the pictures for the Gallup report)

These April to August preferences of Independents looks like random movement to me.  But the Sept data are outside the typical range of variability, and therefore may be meaningful.

When any population is asked to choose between 2 things, and about 50% go either way, there is a possibility that they don't know, and/or are just guessing.

Pro Patria