DebkaFile: US Attack On Iran Becoming Likely

By DemocracyRules

h/t debka.com

DekaFile specializes in “the news before the news” and they are sometimes wrong.  However, I have read them for years and this story seems accurate to me.

DebkaFile thinks Bush will order “A limited missile-air bombardment of the IRGC-al Qods Brigade's installations in Iran. It is planned to target training camps and the munitions factories pumping fighters, missiles and roadside bombs to the Iraqi insurgency, Lebanese Hizbullah and Palestinian terrorist groups in Gaza.”

This list seems long to me, since it would almost certainly trigger a multi-front war at a sensitive time in the US election cycle.  However, limited or special forces strikes on Iranian areas which support cross-border aggression seems very likely, because:

(1) As Iraqi terrorism dies down Iran is increasingly salient as the sole aggressor in Iraq.  This highlights them as the main problem, and also implies the peace dividends of getting rid of them.

(2) US special forces are probably already active near the Iran-Iraq border.

(3) The allied democracies need a showdown with Iran.  Websites which follow Iran are clearly showing more and more pressure being poured on by both sides.  Gina just posted about Ahmadinejad’s strident threats to destroy Israel and the USA in the near future.  Condi has even begun to wag her finger. 

(4)  Many people think Osama is dead. France is opening an airbase in the Gulf.  Canada is committed to Afghanistan until 2011, and probably beyond.  We’re sending more equipment. Japan is considering sending troops. The war with the Taliban is turning into a clear win. 

Hizbullah lost their recent showdown in Lebanon, and democracy there is stronger than ever.   Hamas is doing nothing meaningful.  Syria is negotiating for peace with Israel, much to the chagrin of Iran.  Squeezing Iran is working well enough for them to squawk loudly.  Iranian quislings like the Swiss are quietly leaving.

(5) The USA and allied democracies have more and better armaments needed to stop Iran.  Almost every day strategypage.com reports on some new smart munition or stealth weapon.

(6) McCain is clearly winning and will probably whip Obama badly.  The myriad damaging revelations about Obama will not stop.  Even my cursory search finds  3 or 4 very credible and damaging things about Obama that are about to break the surface.  By now it looks like it will be a steady stream until election, because Obama, his wife, and most of his associates have been doing bad things for a very long time. 

No sensible outside observer would consider Obama even a remotely viable candidate.  One theory I have about the Democrats' presidential candidates is they deliberately chose this long series of hopeless dumb bunnies just to be rebellious.  Wild-eyed Democrat voters may dislike the Republicans’ stolid and boring “father knows best” candidates, but Republicans obviously know how to run the country and win wars.

(7) The US has provoked war before, with Japan.  Japan needed oil and sourced it only from the US.  The US cut them off to stop their Imperialist genocidal roll over the Pacific basin.  But then the US also blocked Japan from getting oil from Indonesia. 

Roosevelt knew what he was doing.  Japan either had to  stop it’s aggressive wars in China or elsewhere, or they would have to attack the US. Amazingly, the hornet attacked the elephant. Pearl Harbor was mainly unexpected, but everyone following events at the time knew the pressure was ramping up, sabers were being rattled,  and something was likely to happen.  The aircraft carriers were probably away from Pearl for some reason related to the pressure.  I’m not saying Roosevelt deliberately started a war, but he did pressure the heck out of Japan to stop their Imperialist roll over the Pacific basin.

(8) The current situation with Iran is similar.  Iran’s behavior is becoming impossibly dangerous, but they are trying to avoid war ('till they have nukes).  Right now the allied democracies are squeezing Iran until the pips squeak. 

(9) Iran is trying to gear up for confrontation, but their military is pathetically weak.  Most of the best Russian equipment is not yet delivered, installed, tested and made operational. Iran would get creamed in conventional warfare. Iranian patriots are yelling “quagmire” already, but bombings and special forces “visits” wouldn’t produce much casualties, and there would be no real “Quag” to “mire” in. Frankly given the futility of attacking the Americans, Iran might just let the US bomb their cross-border bases and do nothing.  The Arabs are unlikely to help Iran, given the stupid things Iran just pulled in Lebanon.

Pro Patria

Comments

[gawfer]

"...(2) US special forces are probably already active near the Iran-Iraq border..."

The real question is Whish side of the border... :)

In fact, past military experience tells me we're sipping tea in Tehran and praying in Mosques as I write this.

I dig this 'cloak and dagger stuff'

[Saul Wall]

Iran is the one which needs the confrontation or at least the threat of one. Fear of the state (or Allah) is not enough to maintain a hold on power. If the people don't fear some outside threat and fear what might happen if the regime fell* then it becomes harder and harder to hold people down.

* These sorts of states always make an effort to force innocent people to carry out their crimes through fear so that they have something to worry about if the power changes hands. It is sort of a mirror image of loyalty - the guilt of capitulation.

[Saul Wall]

I hope that if such action is taken that the goal of reducing Iran's ability to wage proxy wars does not eclipse the more important goal of disabling Iran's security infrastructure and its ability to maintain the current state. Police and military bases in the most rebellious regions should be incapacitated advanced notice through leaflets of attacks against "civilian" police force buildings might get around the legal technicalities while allowing the US to diminish their physical infrastructure and logistical apparatus. Government radio and television transmitters should be high priority targets. Rather than attack power stations which serve the public and potential anti-government forces, targeting the power infrastructure and roadways serving government buildings would be wise.

In short, I feel that targets should be chosen based more on undermining the entire revolutionary system rather than on short-term conveniences.