One Year Ago Today on GINA COBB: HOW TO STOP IRAN

Originally published on May 17, 2007:  HOW TO STOP IRAN by DemocracyRules

Note:  The following is a guest post authored by DemocracyRules.  This is the first in a two-part series. 

Part 1: Do They Have the Motivation, the Means, the Opportunity?

John Bolton is Increasingly Worried about Iran

Iran has "clearly mastered the enrichment technology now...they're not stopping, they're making progress and our time is limited", Bolton said.

Just last Sunday, the IAEA found that, “Iran has already managed to enrich uranium to the 4% purity needed for power stations. Weapons-grade uranium must reach a threshold of 84% purity.”  Mohammed El Baradei is concerned that Iran’s pace of progress has increased significantly, and the time before they have nuclear weapons is shorter than previously anticipated.

“It's been conclusively proven Iran is not going to be talked out of its nuclear program.  So to stop them from doing it, we have to massively increase the pressure” Bolton said.

Is he right?  Well, some people in liberal democracies have already succumbed to Stockholm Syndrome.  They are identifying with the enemy, and are blaming the West or the US for all the ‘trouble’.  Some are already wearing middle eastern clothing.

How about if we think like crime detectives?  Does Iran have the motivation, the means, and the opportunity to attack it’s enemies?  The motivation part is easy to prove.  Since 1979, when the Islamist oligarchy took power, they have relentlessly incited their people to hate Israel and the USA.  “Death to America, Israel should be wiped of the face of the Earth, blah, blah, blah”.

Iran is trying to develop the means.  Usually, the enemy tells you what they’re going to do, before they do it.  Iran has said a lot about developing nuclear weapons.

Ahmadinejad TV speech Aug 1, 2006: "Today, the Iranian people is the owner of nuclear technology. Those who want to talk with our people should know what people they are talking to. If some believe they can keep talking to the Iranian people in the language of threats and aggressiveness, they should know that they are making a bitter mistake. If they have not realized this by now, they soon will, but then it will be too late."  No ambiguity here for me, he wants nukes for war.

Ahmadinejad speech in Shahriyar, Oct 11, ‘06,:"...The enemies are completely paralyzed, and cannot in any way confront the Iranian people. If our people maintain unity and solidarity, they [i.e. the enemies] must expect a great [Iranian] victory, because we have [only] one step remaining before we attain the summit of nuclear technology."

Ahmadinejad at a recent press conference in Tehran, about the Hollywood film, “300", which recounts the Spartan-Persian battle at Thermopylae: "So you think you are a match for the entire Persian army?!?!!. Well, let's see if you're a match for Iran's nuclear program!"

MEMRI cites much more evidence about Iran's efforts to obtain the means for a nuclear attack.

HOW IS IRAN MAKING THOSE BOMBS?

For some reason, the MSM never tells people even the basics about nuclear weapons.  “Iran has a lot of centrifuges”, they say cryptically, but what does that mean?  Here’s what it means, and this is all public knowledge.  To be a fully successful nuclear country, one must have several weapons and a reliable delivery capability.  Iran is not there yet. 

Only two paths are available for these weapons: (1) highly enriched uranium (HEU, 84% pure uranium 235 or better), and a bomb mechanism, probably the ‘gun-type’.  Mount some uranium in the mechanism, and fire a uranium ‘bullet’ at it.  The HEU is highly volatile, and the sudden compression will start a chain reaction explosion.  In WWII, this was ‘little boy’.  There is some speculation that one could drop a big rock on some HEU from a tall building and cause a nuclear explosion.  I don’t now if anyone has actually tried that.

(2) Plutonium 239 (Pu-239, 80% pure or better). This is easier to make than HEU, because with careful planning, one can extract Pu-239 from the fuel rods of a nuclear reactor. You have to stop the reactor at intervals and extract the Pu-239. You could wait until the rods are used up, and extract the Plutonium, but it would not be 80% pure Pu-239.

The bomb mechanism is harder to make for Pu-239. You have to make a spherical detonation mechanism out of conventional explosives. When it’s triggered, it explodes inward toward a softball-sized piece of Pu-239. The sudden compression of the Pu-239 makes it blow up. If the explosion of the sphere is unequal, or imbalanced, the Pu-239 might not blow up, or only a little, which is called a ‘fizzle yield’.

It now seems clear what North Korea’s ‘Mr. Il’ did.  His engineers only had spent fuel rods to work with, and the plutonium wasn’t 80% pure Pu-239.  They used it anyway, and hoped for the best. It produced a ‘fizzle yield.’  They must have known it would probably not work, but under threat of death they tried it anyway.

Iran has fiddled with both HEU and Pu-239, but they have now fast-tracked the HEU development.  They have acquired a bunch of centrifuges.  Now they will ‘gassify’ the uranium, and put it into centrifuges. When it spins, the heaviest gas goes to the bottom, the lightest at the top. The lighter stuff is the uranium 235, the kind you want. You remove and separate the gas, put the lightest portion back in, and spin it again. 

Each spin cycle gives you a higher and higher concentration of the lightest uranium gas.  Eventually it is 84% pure of the lightest uranium, U-235.  Then you convert this gas back into the solid metal that’s called HEU, and make your weapon. 

Iran seems to have the plans needed to machine the HEU metal into weapons-usable hemispheres, and they may have a ‘gun-type’ weapon mechanism already made. Ahmadinejad said on Oct 11, ‘06,:"...we have [only] one step remaining before we attain the summit of nuclear technology."

NOW IT GETS TRICKY

We all know about ‘Projects’, we’ve all worked on ‘Projects’.  They’re not done until they’re completely done.  When I was younger, I would declare my projects ‘almost done’ when they were only half done.  Maybe you did too.  My guess is that Iran will not be very good at completing their nuclear weapon ‘Project’.  Ahmadinejad is probably declaring his project almost done when in fact, it’s far from done.  Literally, Iran could not build a LADA without help.

WILL IRAN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY?

Dictators want nuclear weapons the way teenage boys want Ferrari’s.  It turns out they’re very hard to get, and after you have one, what are you going to do with it?  Obvious idea #1: blow up Israel.  Obvious problem #1: Israel will blow you up in retaliation.  More probably, they will blow you up preemptively.  In a few years, Iran may have a few nukes, mostly untested.  Israel already has lots, and they work really well. 

This looks like a crazy chess game where after 2 moves, you’re checkmated.  Iran seems to be fine with this, they’re not thinking ahead very well.  Obliterating Israel seems very attractive, but many logical steps have been left out.  This is unusual in an enemy.  Saddam planned a bit, but not very well.  Bin Laden plans his head off.  The Soviets and the Nazis planned a huge amount, and very rational planning it was, too.

Now you see why it’s tempting for politicians and policy makers to dismiss the Iranian threat? They assume that Ahmadinejad will be rational, and avoid getting himself and his country blown to smithereens. Politicians are making a terrible miscalculation with this.  In fact, it is irrational to expect Iran to be rational. Since when have Iran’s leaders been rational?  Rationality is out of character for them.  It’s better to stick to a statistician’s aphorism: ‘The best predictor of the immediate future is the immediate past.’

The statistician would predict that Iran will continue being irrational, and they will keep on with their nuclear weapon ‘project’ until they are stopped.  The oligarchy does not seem to mind that they may die in the process.  Ahmadinejad is obviously not very bright, and he’s very emotional.  It is completely possible that if he got nuclear weapons, he would not know what to do with them, except get himself killed. 

NEXT TIME:

Part 2: How Do We Stop Them and What If We Don’t?

By DemocracyRules

Part 1: Do They Have the Motivation, the Means, the Opportunity?

John Bolton is Increasingly Worried about Iran

Iran has "clearly mastered the enrichment technology now...they're not stopping, they're making progress and our time is limited", Bolton said.

Just last Sunday, the IAEA found that, “Iran has already managed to enrich uranium to the 4% purity needed for power stations. Weapons-grade uranium must reach a threshold of 84% purity.”  Mohammed El Baradei is concerned that Iran’s pace of progress has increased significantly, and the time before they have nuclear weapons is shorter than previously anticipated.

“It's been conclusively proven Iran is not going to be talked out of its nuclear program.  So to stop them from doing it, we have to massively increase the pressure” Bolton said.

Is he right?  Well, some people in liberal democracies have already succumbed to Stockholm Syndrome.  They are identifying with the enemy, and are blaming the West or the US for all the ‘trouble’.  Some are already wearing middle eastern clothing.

How about if we think like crime detectives?  Does Iran have the motivation, the means, and the opportunity to attack it’s enemies?  The motivation part is easy to prove.  Since 1979, when the Islamist oligarchy took power, they have relentlessly incited their people to hate Israel and the USA.  “Death to America, Israel should be wiped of the face of the Earth, blah, blah, blah”.

Iran is trying to develop the means.  Usually, the enemy tells you what they’re going to do, before they do it.  Iran has said a lot about developing nuclear weapons.

Ahmadinejad TV speech Aug 1, 2006: "Today, the Iranian people is the owner of nuclear technology. Those who want to talk with our people should know what people they are talking to. If some believe they can keep talking to the Iranian people in the language of threats and aggressiveness, they should know that they are making a bitter mistake. If they have not realized this by now, they soon will, but then it will be too late."  No ambiguity here for me, he wants nukes for war.

Ahmadinejad speech in Shahriyar, Oct 11, ‘06,:"...The enemies are completely paralyzed, and cannot in any way confront the Iranian people. If our people maintain unity and solidarity, they [i.e. the enemies] must expect a great [Iranian] victory, because we have [only] one step remaining before we attain the summit of nuclear technology."

Ahmadinejad at a recent press conference in Tehran, about the Hollywood film, “300", which recounts the Spartan-Persian battle at Thermopylae: "So you think you are a match for the entire Persian army?!?!!. Well, let's see if you're a match for Iran's nuclear program!"

MEMRI cites much more evidence about Iran's efforts to obtain the means for a nuclear attack.

HOW IS IRAN MAKING THOSE BOMBS?

For some reason, the MSM never tells people even the basics about nuclear weapons.  “Iran has a lot of centrifuges”, they say cryptically, but what does that mean?  Here’s what it means, and this is all public knowledge.  To be a fully successful nuclear country, one must have several weapons and a reliable delivery capability.  Iran is not there yet. 

Only two paths are available for these weapons: (1) highly enriched uranium (HEU, 84% pure uranium 235 or better), and a bomb mechanism, probably the ‘gun-type’.  Mount some uranium in the mechanism, and fire a uranium ‘bullet’ at it.  The HEU is highly volatile, and the sudden compression will start a chain reaction explosion.  In WWII, this was ‘little boy’.  There is some speculation that one could drop a big rock on some HEU from a tall building and cause a nuclear explosion.  I don’t now if anyone has actually tried that.

(2) Plutonium 239 (Pu-239, 80% pure or better). This is easier to make than HEU, because with careful planning, one can extract Pu-239 from the fuel rods of a nuclear reactor. You have to stop the reactor at intervals and extract the Pu-239. You could wait until the rods are used up, and extract the Plutonium, but it would not be 80% pure Pu-239.

The bomb mechanism is harder to make for Pu-239. You have to make a spherical detonation mechanism out of conventional explosives. When it’s triggered, it explodes inward toward a softball-sized piece of Pu-239. The sudden compression of the Pu-239 makes it blow up. If the explosion of the sphere is unequal, or imbalanced, the Pu-239 might not blow up, or only a little, which is called a ‘fizzle yield’.

It now seems clear what North Korea’s ‘Mr. Il’ did.  His engineers only had spent fuel rods to work with, and the plutonium wasn’t 80% pure Pu-239.  They used it anyway, and hoped for the best. It produced a ‘fizzle yield.’  They must have known it would probably not work, but under threat of death they tried it anyway.

Iran has fiddled with both HEU and Pu-239, but they have now fast-tracked the HEU development.  They have acquired a bunch of centrifuges.  Now they will ‘gassify’ the uranium, and put it into centrifuges. When it spins, the heaviest gas goes to the bottom, the lightest at the top. The lighter stuff is the uranium 235, the kind you want. You remove and separate the gas, put the lightest portion back in, and spin it again. 

Each spin cycle gives you a higher and higher concentration of the lightest uranium gas.  Eventually it is 84% pure of the lightest uranium, U-235.  Then you convert this gas back into the solid metal that’s called HEU, and make your weapon. 

Iran seems to have the plans needed to machine the HEU metal into weapons-usable hemispheres, and they may have a ‘gun-type’ weapon mechanism already made. Ahmadinejad said on Oct 11, ‘06,:"...we have [only] one step remaining before we attain the summit of nuclear technology."

NOW IT GETS TRICKY

We all know about ‘Projects’, we’ve all worked on ‘Projects’.  They’re not done until they’re completely done.  When I was younger, I would declare my projects ‘almost done’ when they were only half done.  Maybe you did too.  My guess is that Iran will not be very good at completing their nuclear weapon ‘Project’.  Ahmadinejad is probably declaring his project almost done when in fact, it’s far from done.  Literally, Iran could not build a LADA without help.

WILL IRAN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY?

Dictators want nuclear weapons the way teenage boys want Ferrari’s.  It turns out they’re very hard to get, and after you have one, what are you going to do with it?  Obvious idea #1: blow up Israel.  Obvious problem #1: Israel will blow you up in retaliation.  More probably, they will blow you up preemptively.  In a few years, Iran may have a few nukes, mostly untested.  Israel already has lots, and they work really well. 

This looks like a crazy chess game where after 2 moves, you’re checkmated.  Iran seems to be fine with this, they’re not thinking ahead very well.  Obliterating Israel seems very attractive, but many logical steps have been left out.  This is unusual in an enemy.  Saddam planned a bit, but not very well.  Bin Laden plans his head off.  The Soviets and the Nazis planned a huge amount, and very rational planning it was, too.

Now you see why it’s tempting for politicians and policy makers to dismiss the Iranian threat? They assume that Ahmadinejad will be rational, and avoid getting himself and his country blown to smithereens. Politicians are making a terrible miscalculation with this.  In fact, it is irrational to expect Iran to be rational. Since when have Iran’s leaders been rational?  Rationality is out of character for them.  It’s better to stick to a statistician’s aphorism: ‘The best predictor of the immediate future is the immediate past.’

The statistician would predict that Iran will continue being irrational, and they will keep on with their nuclear weapon ‘project’ until they are stopped.  The oligarchy does not seem to mind that they may die in the process.  Ahmadinejad is obviously not very bright, and he’s very emotional.  It is completely possible that if he got nuclear weapons, he would not know what to do with them, except get himself killed. 

NEXT TIME:

Part 2: How Do We Stop Them and What If We Don’t?

By DemocracyRules