Western media and pundits who uncritically state that Osama Bin Laden released two videos this week are falling for video sock puppetry. Either Bin Laden is dead or, less likely, he has dramatically altered his appearance and is not releasing any current video images in order to avoid capture.
First we had a video a few days ago supposedly showing Osama Bin Laden alive and well in which, it turns out, the video of Bin Laden is frozen whenever the audio refers to curent events -- but not during portions that refer to events long ago. Ex-Army linguist George Maschke wrote:
Osama Bin Laden's widely publicized video address to the American people has a peculiarity that casts serious doubt on its authenticity: the video freezes at about 1 minute and
3658 seconds, and motion only resumes again at 12:30. The video then freezes again at 14:02 remains frozen until the end. All references to current events, such as the 62nd anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombing of Japan, and Sarkozy and Brown being the leaders of France and the UK, respectively, occur when the video is frozen! The words spoken when the video is in motion contain no references to contemporary events and could have been (and likely were) made before the U.S. invasion of Iraq.The audio track does appear to be in the voice of a single speaker. What I suspect was done is that an older, unreleased video was dubbed over for this release, with the video frozen when the audio track departed from that of the original video.
Rick Moran took the time to listen to the Bin Laden video and confirmed that it contained the long freeze frame sections identified by George Maschke.
Today we have a second video of Bin Laden featuring one of the vicious 9/11 murderers, and again the video image of Bin Laden is frozen, with dubbed audio. Furthermore, Bin Laden is wearing the exact same attire he was wearing in the video supposedly recorded this year and standing in front of the same backdrop.
Referring to the second video released today, the AP writes:
It begins with an audiotape introduction by bin Laden. While his voice is heard, the video shows a still image of him, raising his finger. In the image, bin Laden has the same dyed-black beard and the same clothes — a white robe and cap and beige cloak — that he had in Saturday's video.
But it was not known if the audiotape was recently made. In the past, al-Qaida has used footage and audio of bin Laden taped long ago for release later.
Here is a still image from today's video, via LauraMansfield.com:
There is no plausible explanation for Bin Laden's video image to be frozen in two separate videos while he is speaking of recent events-- except for video fakery.
I'm more convinced than ever that Bin Laden is dead or that he has dramatically altered his appearance and seeks to avoid detection. Either way, the video images we are seeing are years out of date.
Given the strange references to liberal hot-button issues like global warming in the latest Bin Laden video and other oddities, I think it more likely that Bin Laden is dead and that the "Bin Laden" videos are being entirely ghost-written.
As a practical matter, the West should proceed on the working assumption that Bin Laden is dead unless and until Al Qaeda produces credible video of Bin Laden in which his lips are moving when he speaks of current events.
When we fall for sock puppetry, we are being played for chumps by jihadists. In addition to lending aid and comfort to America's enemies by our naivete, we waste precious, irreplaceable time foolishly debating the wrong questions such as "Why haven't we yet caught Bin Laden?" and whether we should withdraw from Iraq in order to look for Bin Laden in Afghanistan.
If Bin Laden is alive, let Al Qaeda prove it. Their video sock puppetry suggests otherwise. Either they are engaged in an elaborate double hoax to lead the world to believe that Bin Laden is dead when he really is not (a hoax which the world has yet to even recognize), or, more likely, Bin Laden is indeed worm food and the jihadists are working with their dwindling supply of old videotape and one of Bin Laden's many male relatives to record the audio track.
I am surprised that more in the blogosphere, especially on the right, have not yet sounded the alarm about the apparent Bin Laden video fakery. In their defense, it has been a busy news week with General Petraeus's testimony to Congress and the 9/11 anniversary. Further, the conclusion that the videos are fakes is a matter of opinion, although one supported by the evidence in hand.
As we have learned through one media mistake and distortion after another in the war on terror discovered only by the blogosphere, we cannot rely on the Associated Press or Reuters to recognize a fake when it is presented to them. That is our job. I'm calling foul.
Update 1: In this late-breaking story today, the AP begins to acknowledge that the latest Bin Laden videos raise questions about his "health," but the AP avoids the elephant in the room -- the fact that the same videotapes also raise serious questions about whether Bin Laden is alive at all:
Because bin Laden's image moves for only a few minutes in the first tape and not at all in the second, questions are being raised about his health.
Really? You don't say!
Update 2: Former CIA Director James Woolsey also acknowledges that there is something very strange (and sophomoric) about the two recent Bin Laden tapes.
Update 3: Rusty Shackleford at Jawa Report thinks the safer bet (pending more proof) is that Bin Laden is alive but notes that the video altering technology exists to fake the Bin Laden video images we saw this past week.
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