Saudi Arabian security forces early Monday shot and killed at least five suspected terrorists believed to be involved in a foiled attack on the world's biggest oil processing complex in Saudi Arabia, a news report said. Here's an excerpt from the Associated Press:
The Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya television quoted Saudi security sources as saying the forces exchanged fire with the suspected terrorists for about two hours in a suburb of the Saudi capital of Riyadh, killing five people suspected of being part of the cell that attacked the Abqaiq complex.
Police said they confiscated weapons and ammunition from the house in the suburb where the suspects had been holed up, the news report said.
On Sunday, Saudi Arabia said that two suicide bombers killed in the foiled assault were on its list of most-wanted extremists.
The Saudi Interior Ministry in a statement reported by the official Saudi Press Agency identified the two as Abdullah Abdul-Aziz al-Tweijri and Mohammed Saleh al-Gheith and said both were on a list of the 15 most-wanted terrorists the kingdom issued in June.
The deaths of the two meant that only four remain at large of the list of 15. Ten have now died or been killed, and one was previously arrested.
It sounds like Al Qaeda has just suffered some very significant setbacks in Saudi Arabia.
That leads me to predict that Al Qaeda will release another statement soon, whether in the form of a video, audiotape or internet statement, claiming victory and threatening more attacks.
If I can generalize a pattern from merely two recent data points (always a risky proposition, but this is harmless speculation in this case), Al Qaeda seems to have a recent pattern of following up its own painful setbacks by releasing threatening statements that seem intended put the best face on Al Qaeda's losses and regain some of the lost momentum.
In the case of the attack on the unsuccessful Saudi oil refinery last Friday, it was followed the next day by a video from Al Qaeda taking "credit" for the botched attack, but not acknowledging that the attack had been foiled before it did any damage to the refinery. (Two security guards were killed, however -- a loss for anyone who values innocent human life, but not a gain for Al Qaeda.)
In the case of the U.S. air strike in Pakistan in January that reportedly killed four leading al-Qaeda figures, including Al Qaeda's top bomb maker and chemical weapons expert Abu Khabab al-Masri, a tape from Osama Bin Laden was released just days later that claimed that the terrorists had penetrated security procedures of other nations time after time, and said al-Qaeda would soon launch a fresh attack on American soil.
If we can deduce anything from this recent pattern, it is that when Al Qaeda fails on the ground, it tries to regain momentum quickly and cheaply by releasing a propaganda statement or tape.
Al Qaeda has now suffered another significant setback in Saudi Arabia. That means some sort of propaganda statement (new, old, or recycled), is likely on its way.
Al Qaeda's next statement, whatever garbled nonsense it contains, should be seen as an encouraging sign. When Al Qaeda is forced to substitute braggadocio and threats of future attacks for the results it intended, it is a sure sign that Al Qaeda has just lost another battle in the war on terror.
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