SITREP: Iran Jan 11, 2009 – First Hamas, Then Iran

By DemocracyRules

Iran is like a six-headed hydra.  It's a threat on its own, and it  supports and supplies five proxy terrorist groups.  (1) Hamas in Gaza, (2) Hezbullah in Lebanon, (3) Assad and his minions in Syria, (4) the Taliban in Afghanistan, and (5) Iranian operatives and fifth-columnists in the West.

Many military observers thought Israel would attack Iran in this interregnum period between November 4, 2008, and before January 20, 2009.  This period between Bush and Obama is auspicious,  because Bush won't object much, and Obama can't intervene yet.

Instead Israel attacked Hamas.  This is an indirect attack on Iran. Destroying Hamas will help Israel defend itself against Iran, for two reasons.

(1) Iran is close to having a functional "gun-type" nuclear bomb, but they are months or years away from having a miniaturized version that could fit in a missile.  With the help of Hamas, Iran might not need miniaturization.  They could install a prototype into a shipping container and send it to Hamas, which could then bring it by boat into Tel Aviv harbor for detonation. Tel Aviv is close to Gaza.  This would kill tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands of Israelis.

 

Design for "Little Boy" (Hiroshima).  Two pieces of highly enriched uranium 235 are blasted into each other by a gun-type mechanism.  When the two uranium pieces fuse together momentarily, a nuclear explosion occurs, where trillions of uranium atoms suddenly disintegrate, releasing huge amounts of energy.  Iran could build a gun-type mechanism without the bomb-casing, load it into a shipping container, and give it to terrorists for shipping into an Israeli or US harbor.

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Iran could deny involvement, and attribute the action to Al Qaida, who would eagerly take the credit.  Thus, if Israel destroys Hamas, they would disable Iran’s nuclear delivery capability for about two  years.

(2) But Israel is also threatened by the Al Qaida buildup in Gaza.   Gaza is getting infiltrated by Al Qaida fighters who have begun streaming out of Iraq, into Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.  They are mainly battle-hardened fanatical Sunni extremists called “Salafists.”  They are similar to the  Wahhabi of Saudi Arabia.

There is evidence of this new Al Qaida buildup in Gaza.  For example, Gaza just recently adopted full Sharia law in it’s most medieval form, including beheading, cutting off of hands, stoning for adultery, and Crucifixion for Christians.  This move is congruent with the values and demands of the Al Qaida Salafists.

Hamas is power hungry but they are inept political and military fat cats. Their corrupt leaders live mainly off the largess of the European Union and UN “humanitarian aid”.  Hamas doesn’t even bother pretending to foster development or feed their people.  Instead  they spend enormous time and resources fighting amongst themselves, and shooting firecracker-like rockets at Israel.  The rocket attacks are very stressful for Israel, but they’re not an existential threat.

The Al Qaida fighters from Iraq are not fat cats. They will do whatever it takes to defeat Israel, and they're not very interested in firecrackers.

Thus, the Israeli attack on Hamas and Al Qaida in Gaza is part of the wider confrontation with Iran.  But it’s not clear what the Israel objective is.  Every Israeli politician seems to have a different idea, and they change their views daily. 

With any project, it’s essential to have a clear goal. Without it, the project probably won’t get done.  One can change the goal over time, but there still needs to be a goal. 

Here are some possible goals.

(1) Stop the rocket attacks.  OK, which type of rockets, and what about the mortar attacks?  And for how long do the attacks have to stop?

(2) The complete and unconditional surrender of Hamas.  This sounds good, but Arabs aren’t very good at formal surrender.  Hamas is a group if irregular militiamen, insurgents,  and terrorists.  They could simply melt into the crowd, and regroup later.

(3) The resumption of complete political control of Gaza.  This would prevent Hamas from reorganizing and reappearing later.  But does Israel really want to control Gaza?  Technically it’s not part of the original land of the Hebrews.  So why re-capture and hold what is essentially a foreign country?  This is especially paradoxical because Samaria, which is central in the origins of Hebrew culture and religion, is now controlled by the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.  Why claim Gaza but ignore Samaria?

(4) Achieve a peace agreement with Hamas.  How, by bombing them?  And Hamas has never shown an interest in peace with Israel.

(5) Pound on Hamas until the upcoming election is over.  This will make Olmert, Tzipi Livni, Ehud Barak, and their cohorts look “tough”, which might help them win the election.  I doubt this is the reason for the conflict.

(6) Return things to the “status quo ante” (the way they were).  Condi loves this term. But which status quo?  When was there a nice, peaceful time in the Middle East?   We might a have to go back to the dinosaurs and start over again.

I suggest the goal should be to obliterate Hamas as it now exists.

(A) Destroy all buildings and infrastructure, all physical records, and all digital media belonging to Hamas.

(B) Remove every Hamas leader from power, down to the equivalent level of Captain.  Let no Hamas leader remain living outside prison walls. If capture is not feasible, engage them as enemy combatants.  Hamas are soldiers who have sworn to destroy Israel.  This stopped Hamas in their tracks in 2001.

(C) Attack Hamas leaders in other countries, including Syria and Lebanon.

(D) Stop the weapons smuggling from the border with Egypt.  There are about 300 to 3,000 tunnels under that 14 km border. Occupy the border permanently, install tunnel sensors, or build a moat.  The weapons smuggling must be stopped completely.

This wouldn’t eradicate Iran's threat to Isreal, but for about two years it would sharply degrade Iran’s ability to involve Hamas in a nuclear attack on Israel.

Comments

[James R McKenna]

Gina, Thanks for the information and analysis.

[Thank you, James, and thanks to DemocracyRules for another great post. - Gina Cobb]

[Claudia]

I totally agree with your analysis and reasoning about what course the Israelites should follow in dealing with the arm of the Hydra. And I would dearly love to see Hamas get what is coming to it, but I fear that Israel will stop short just like they have in every conflict since they wre granted hte land back in '48. Israel has (as a nationality) way too much heart to deestroy and annhilate all the Hamas leaders and followers without recourse. They have the power, they have the determination, they have the ability and the courage, (and for that, they deserve our respect, not condemnation) but they don't follow through to the end, they always leave a little fingertip that is dangling out there being frustrated and that starts to rebuild their (now Hamas's) hatred.

I hate to see these wars every few years that always come away with no clear decisive victory for Israel, when I know that they could totally take care of the problem, if they so had the determination to do so, and then they would be able to become what they want to be as a nation and be able to go to work each day without the fear that their home possibly will be blown up while they are gone and/or their kids killed while they are at school. All they really have to do is holdout a bit longer and pummel the Hamas or whoever else is trying at that time to destroy them, till the streets are bloody red and there is no more fight left. That is the only way Hamas or other groups will ever respect them and know that they mean business, and the wars will then stop.