SITREP Georgia - Russian War, Sun Aug 10

By DemocracyRules
Situation Report

Cheney stands clearly behind Georgia. He says Russia's military actions in Georgia "must not go unanswered."  Cheney's press secretary, Lee Ann McBride, said Cheney spoke Sunday afternoon with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. "The vice president expressed the United States' solidarity with the Georgian people and their democratically elected government in the face of this threat to Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity...Russian aggression must not go unanswered, and that its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations with the United States, as well as the broader international community."

(1) Everything focuses now on how far Russia will go to enforce control over Georgia.  The situation is fluid, mainly because the Russians, as usual, have very little idea what they are doing.  Their pathetic underpaid army is full of vodka-besodden conscripts.  They continue to call themselves "peacekeepers", but clearly they are Russian occupiers. The map is from The Economist newspaper.  It has a reasonably good round-up of recent events.

(2) In crisis there is opportunity.  Here are some points I made on Kommersant.ru in May of 2008:

     (a) So Russia needs more land? How could Russia possibly need more land?

     (b) A peace-keeper keeps the peace. A regular soldier kills as many of the enemy as possible. These are different things! Call the Russian occupiers what they are.

     (c) If Russia actually goes to war with Georgia, it will make a terrible mess. Wars always do. You will actually have to kill thousands of Georgians. Remember, Afghanistan looked easy in the beginning, but it wasn't. Georgians will fight much harder and more effectively than the Afghans.

     (d) Georgia used to be part of the USSR. It's like declaring war on your brother.

     (e) Georgians will fight like Russians. They will fight tooth and nail, to the last man. The Germans used to fear Russians because they would keep attacking even if you put bullets in them. If they could crawl, they would attack, even if they had no weapons. The Georgians will fight like that.

(3) I doubt that Russia will take my advice.  The scuttlebut around State is that Bush and Putin "had words" today at the Olympics.

(4) Russia will probably lose this war, which would be a good thing.  They are feeding supplies to their troops through one main tunnel (Roki tunnel) on their border with Georgia.  Any closure of the Roki tunnel or the roads to it would leave the Russian troops in South Ossetia stranded.

(5)  Russian equipment is no match for the war materiel that the allied democracies could loan to Georgia.  The most appropriate might be a few Patriot missile batteries to take out Russian aircraft, and the new smart GPS - MLRS system.  The GMLRS looks like this and it hits it's target. Don't leave home without it. The US GMLRS is GPS-guided, and if you program it to hit somewhere then it hits exactly there.  Whatever was at those coordinates would be gone.  A barrage of smart GMLRS missiles could wipe out most of the Russian heavy equipment within a few days (or hours).

(6) Russia is small compared to the Allied Democracies.  The Russian annual GDP is about $2 trillion, while the allies' total GDP exceeds $34 trillion.

Pro Patria

Comments

[Jon Cohn]

I was going to copy and paste what I stated a few days ago on the denver post blog.I will do that later.Instead
of Propoganda by a Lame Duck Neoconservative administration that cannot get authorisation from a Democratic congress for a suicide military adventure READ the Russians Lips.Go watch Russian Internet TV and listen carefully to Putin.Its TOO late for the Pressident of Georgia and his NeoFacist Elites.The Russians have no Intention of destroying Georgias infrastructure or ability to bounce back economicly after this debacle.The chess game is to expose this paranoid coward into defending himself and his crew by getting him to retreat his forces towards Tiblisi to defend the Capital.Command and Control has been destroyed.Georgian Units are fighting on their own without orders playing into the hands of the Russians who can prove the Georgian Military is still on the offensive despite the so called ceasefire order and retreat.The east west highway is cut.The mobilisation
has collapsed.Their Crack Units airlifted from Iraq are now cut off at the Gorge with orders to defend it.They will die a glorious death.When the Russians move out towards Tiblisi they will surround it avoid as much as possible killing civillians.The Russian Secret service is already talking to Georgian Generals about a Coup De Ta and bringing these Neo Facists and commanders to Russian Authorities for War crimes trials.The best kept secret of the Russian Military is the number of tactical battlelfied nuclear weapons they field and cruise missiles.GDP means nothing when the Nukes Fly.The only option Putin has is Regime Change and a loud clear signal to the West that Russia will not allow itself to be encircled by Hostile goverments.The russians played their hand patiently skillfully giving the impression they would do nothing if Georgia attacked their Russian citizens.Bushwaco and the Neoconservatives fell for it and gave the Georgian Pressident the nod to go ahead with his Genocide Shock and Awe destroying every hospital in south oessia.You do not poke a sleeping Bear.It will rip Your head off.And you do not play chess with the superior chess skills of the Russian Bear.Oh American allies Uh uh.Tricky Dick was a Republican Richard Nixon.Georgian Allies you got to be kidding just ask the South Vietnamese.The Arrogance of the NeoFacists is such that they will not accept the Last Public offer of Putin without amending it to at least save face.As such the public Image of the PEACE KEEPING RUSSIAN ARMY STOPPING A NAZI LIKE DICTATOR will remain till they the NeoFacists are captured or Killed.The die is cast.the russians play one Hell of a game of Chess close to home.Just know your History.Lord Kirchner,Napolean,Adolf Hitler,The Ottomans and all the others who thought the Russian Bear has only feet
and Paws of Clay.Putin is a Master and much smarter than Chainlink and BushWaco.

[Yes but truthfully]

Jon Cohn I love your comments. Dem. Rules's blogs are one sided. I'm happy to come here every now and again, but you did a good job this time!

[Gina Cobb]

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[Bob]

hi my name is bob. i thought i was russian once and it was awesome.... but the i woke up. bye guyes.