Is John McCain in a position to win the election by a healthy margin over Barack Obama? That's the surprising conclusion of some GOP insiders (none of them too eager to be quoted on the record for fear of jinxing the whole thing):
It sounds crazy at first. Amid dire reports about the toxic political environment for Republican candidates and the challenges facing John McCain, many top GOP strategists believe he can defeat Barack Obama — and by a margin exceeding President Bush’s Electoral College victory in 2004.
At first blush, McCain’s recent rough patch and the considerable financial disadvantage confronting him make such predictions seem absurd. Indeed, as Republicans experience their worst days since Watergate, those same GOP strategists are reticent to publicly tout the prospect of a sizable McCain victory for fear of looking foolish.
But the contours of the electoral map, combined with McCain’s unique strengths and the nature of Obama’s possible vulnerabilities, have led to a cautious and muted optimism that McCain could actually surpass Bush’s 35-electoral-vote victory in 2004. Though they expect he would finish far closer to Obama in the popular vote, the thinking is that he could win by as many 50 electoral votes.
By post-war election standards, that margin is unusually small. Yet it’s considerably larger than either Bush’s 2004 victory or his five-electoral-vote win in 2000.
“A win by 40 or 50 electoral votes would be an astonishing upset, just a watershed event with all the issues that were stacked against him from the very beginning,” said David Woodard, a Republican pollster and Clemson University political science professor. “But it could happen. I know this seems like wishful thinking by Republicans. I’m thinking that Republicans could win by 40 electoral votes. But I dare not say it,” he added. “Certainly what is possible could come to pass.”
A top strategist with the Republican National Committee, who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, explained that by his own examination, “we’re actually sitting pretty well in most states.”“There are a lot of scenarios that look good for McCain, and I almost would go so far to say that there are a lot more scenarios [than for Obama],” the strategist added. “I don’t think anybody over here wants to let themselves get too excited about it. It is an eternity between now and November. But McCain looks a lot stronger than our prospects as a party.”
It is virtually impossible to find an established GOP strategist who believes McCain will win in a landslide. But in light of the circumstances, more than a few Republicans are pleasantly surprised to find that McCain is at all situated to defeat Obama.
“The broader environment clearly favors the Democrat,” said Whit Ayers, another veteran GOP pollster. But Ayers argued that “a state-by-state analysis actually makes McCain a narrow favorite to win the Electoral College majority.”
“That would certainly run against the grain of history, if he pulled that off,” Ayers added. “But it’s also clearly plausible and a manageable outcome partly because of John McCain’s strength among independents and partly because of Obama’s weakness in culture, ideology and association.”
Hugh Hewitt thinks John McCain should pick his running mate now, and explains the strategic advantages:
Senator McCain will pick a running mate who most decisively impacts this [national electoral] map, which means someone who first does no harm, and second brings the ability to move the needle in PA, OH, MI, MN, WI, IA, CO, and NM --the faintest of blue or a shade of light pink states wherein the November election will be decided.
Senator McCain has used the bonus time awarded him by the Dems' screwy rules to reassure the conservative base on the war, judges and taxes while keeping his centrist appeal intact on climate change. His very effective appearances on SNL and the other shows like Ellen and Lettermen demonstrate a media-savvy that will be crucial in the fall. Obama is helping the GOP every single day by demonstrating again and again that it is safe to use the "L" word on the freshman senator --as in "lightweight."
The combination of great news on continued progress in Iraq and ominous news from Lebanon and Iran also underscores McCain's central appeal as a wartime president who won't be making the sort of enormous blunders that Jimmy Carter did which led to generation-lasting burdens we are still carrying.
Yesterday Jennifer Rubin --don't miss her analysis of Obama's appeal to Jewish voters yesterday-- made an argument on my show that Senator McCain should wait until after Senator Obama had selected his running mate in order to match the GOP ticket well against the Dems.
I see the logic, but think the time is now to throw the veep nominee fully into the fray and begin working these crucial states, town-by-town and precinct-by-precinct. Voters have to be engaged and persuaded about the very different paths being put before them. McCain is doing this effectively, but having two voices that command instant attention doing so is a great advantage. The veep nominee will effectively double the fund-raising efforts for House and Senate GOP candidates and the national party as well, while also giving the media, old and new, a second source of news every day. The Republicans need all the help they can marshall and they need it now, not two or three months from now
McCain Campaign
Is McCain in a position to win the election by a healthy margin over Barack Obama? That's thesurprising conclusion of some GOP insiders, none of them too eager to be quoted for fear of jinxing the whole thing.
Hugh Hewitt thinks John McCain should pick his running mate now, and explains the strategic advantages:
Senator McCain will pick a running mate who most decisively impacts this [national electoral] map, which means someone who first does no harm, and second brings the ability to move the needle in PA, OH, MI, MN, WI, IA, CO, and NM --the faintest of blue or a shade of light pink states wherein the November election will be decided.
Senator McCain has used the bonus time awarded him by the Dems' screwy rules to reassure the conservative base on the war, judges and taxes while keeping his centrist appeal intact on climate change. His very effective appearances on SNL and the other shows like Ellen and Lettermen demonstrate a media-savvy that will be crucial in the fall. Obama is helping the GOP every single day by demonstrating again and again that it is safe to use the "L" word on the freshman senator --as in "lightweight."
The combination of great news on continued progress in Iraq and ominous news from Lebanon and Iran also underscores McCain's central appeal as a wartime president who won't be making the sort of enormous blunders that Jimmy Carter did which led to generation-lasting burdens we are still carrying.
Yesterday Jennifer Rubin --don't miss her analysis of Obama's appeal to Jewish voters yesterday-- made an argument on my show that Senator McCain should wait until after Senator Obama had selected his running mate in order to match the GOP ticket well against the Dems.
I see the logic, but think the time is now to throw the veep nominee fully into the fray and begin working these crucial states, town-by-town and precinct-by-precinct. Voters have to be engaged and persuaded about the very different paths being put before them. McCain is doing this effectively, but having two voices that command instant attention doing so is a great advantage. The veep nominee will effectively double the fund-raising efforts for House and Senate GOP candidates and the national party as well, while also giving the media, old and new, a second source of news every day. The Republicans need all the help they can marshall and they need it now, not two or three months from now
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